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Cryptoccino — Monday 13 July 2026

☕ 6 min read

Today's Roast

Single shot · top move 2.0% (XRP)

The Pour. A US-Iran shooting war, oil up 4%, and Bitcoin barely flinched. Markets are either very calm or very wrong.

Today. US strikes Iran, crypto sits on its hands Markets · Strategy offloads $216M in BTC while Saylor posts riddles Markets · BIP 110 fork deadline arrives with zero miner support Projects & Money.

Prices

  • BTC$62,831−1.8%
  • ETH$1,783−1.3%
  • BNB$569−0.9%
  • SOL$76.04−1.1%
  • XRP$1.07−2.0%
  • DOGE$0.0722−1.6%

MARKETS

US Strikes Iran in Operation Epic Fury. Bitcoin Does Not Care.

coindesk cryptobriefing cryptobriefing cryptobriefing

Fear & Greed28/100Fear +4 / 7d

What happened. US forces struck Iranian missile, drone, radar, and naval assets in what the Pentagon labelled Operation Epic Fury. Iran responded with large-scale retaliatory strikes on US regional bases, claimed destruction of a drone command centre in Bahrain, and moved to intercept shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A ceasefire of sorts appears to have followed, with crude pulling back from its initial 4% spike, though refined fuel costs remain elevated as Ukrainian drones continue to hit Russian refineries.

Why it matters. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil, and even a partial closure would tighten energy markets at a moment when the incoming Warsh Fed is already navigating sticky inflation. For crypto, the non-reaction is the story: BTC and ETH were little changed through the overnight escalation, a decoupling from traditional risk-off moves that either signals genuine safe-haven credibility or deep market indifference. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 28 (Fear) with only a +4 recovery over seven days, which makes the price stability look less like confidence and more like paralysis.

Watch. US CPI data drops this week alongside the Strait of Hormuz situation, and Senator Lindsey Graham’s death has left the Republican Senate majority on a knife-edge, complicating the legislative calendar for any pending crypto bills. If oil stays elevated and inflation prints hot, Warsh’s first rate decision at the July Fed meeting becomes significantly more hawkish in framing, which would be the real macro pressure point for risk assets.

Markets

Strategy sold $216M in BTC while Saylor teased a cryptic chart. The firm liquidated a chunk of its position with bitcoin trading near $64,000, leaving its 843,775 BTC stack roughly $9.7 billion underwater at its average cost of $75,476. Saylor posted an oblique chart captioned ‘orange dots tell only part of the story’, declining to specify what the other part is. theblock

A dormant Bitcoin whale surfaced for the first time since 2018. Onchain data shows a wallet that last moved BTC when it was trading around $6,475 shifted $188 million worth of coins, reflecting close to a tenfold gain over seven years. Whether this is a sell signal or a custody migration is not yet clear. theblock

Bitcoin is approaching a long-run power law support level Fidelity has tracked since 2015. The line has historically marked durable price floors rather than breakdown points, which Fidelity analysts flag as a potential accumulation zone. Given the current $64,000 vicinity and macro headwinds from the Iran conflict, the test is live. coindesk

Stablecoin market cap has dropped $10 billion since May. Analysts are not treating the contraction as a red flag, attributing it to seasonal redemptions and shifting DeFi utilisation rather than a structural liquidity exit. Circle’s $250M USDC mint on Solana this week at least suggests on-chain demand from some corners remains intact. coindesk cryptobriefing

Projects & Money

BIP 110 fork deadline is approaching with no miner signalling support. The proposal, which would have introduced changes to Bitcoin’s transaction validation rules, has attracted zero backing from miners as its activation window closes. Without a threshold of hashpower behind it, the fork dies quietly, though the debate it reopened around Bitcoin governance will not. coindesk

Japan’s SBI Holdings is systematically expanding its crypto footprint. The Block’s breakdown of SBI’s recent deal flow shows a deliberate strategy of anchoring positions across exchange infrastructure, asset management, and blockchain ventures, treating digital assets as a core business line rather than a venture allocation. It is one of the more coherent TradFi-to-crypto integration stories in the market right now. theblock

Lawson convenience stores are piloting yen-pegged stablecoin payments in Japan. The proof-of-concept pairs telecom giant KDDI with crypto wallet firm HashPort and uses JPYC for in-store transactions at the convenience chain. It is a narrow pilot, but Lawson has roughly 14,000 locations in Japan, making the distribution potential significant if it scales. theblock

Solana logged 10.1 billion transactions in Q1 2026 and is adding 8.4 million new addresses weekly. The network activity numbers are real, but address growth and raw transaction count are both gameable metrics, and a portion of Solana’s volume has historically been bot-driven. The figures are being cited in valuation conversations nonetheless. cryptobriefing

On the Hill

Senator Lindsey Graham’s death has put the Republican Senate majority at risk. South Carolina’s governor will appoint a replacement, but the timeline and appointment’s ideological alignment are uncertain, potentially affecting the vote count on pending legislation including any crypto or stablecoin bills. The geopolitical context around the US-Iran conflict is covered in the lead. cryptobriefing

Kevin Warsh faces his first rate decision as Fed Chair at the July meeting. With oil spiking on Middle East tensions and CPI data due this week, Warsh’s opening move will set the tone for how markets read his inflation tolerance relative to Powell’s. A hold with hawkish language would be the path of least resistance, but anything more dovish would be an immediate market mover. cryptobriefing

Pakistan’s crypto regulator is navigating a fatwa declaring digital asset purchases impermissible under Islamic law. Regulators held direct talks with Mufti Taqi Usmani, one of the most prominent Islamic finance scholars globally, after the ruling created friction with the country’s emerging digital asset framework. How Pakistan resolves the tension will matter for the broader Muslim-majority market bloc that has been cautious about retail crypto adoption. theblock

What else is grinding?

  • Ripple’s CEO revealed the company once seriously considered shutting down entirely and distributing XRP directly to shareholders. coindesk
  • Circle minted $250M in USDC on Solana, a data point the stablecoin contraction story and the Solana activity metrics both want to claim. cryptobriefing
  • CoinDesk’s State of Crypto column flagged tentative signs of institutional life returning to the market, without specifying which metrics are doing the heavy lifting. coindesk
  • Japan is standing up a new intelligence agency with Western assistance, a structural shift in its security posture that intersects with the SBI crypto expansion story and broader questions about Japanese capital flows. cryptobriefing

Last sip. The Strait of Hormuz is notionally open again, the ceasefire is holding for now, and nobody is quite sure whether bitcoin’s non-reaction was strength or absence of buyers.