Cryptoccino — Thursday 18 June 2026
☕ 9 min read
Today's Roast
Single shot · top move 3.6% (XRP)
The Pour. Geopolitics does what the Fed wouldn’t, and Illinois quietly becomes the state crypto loves to hate.
Today. Trump-Iran MOU sends Bitcoin briefly above $67K before the market thinks better of it Markets · Illinois signs a 0.2% crypto transaction tax into law, the industry calls it the most hostile state move yet On the Hill · CME Group to sue the CFTC over its approval of perpetual futures On the Hill.
Prices
- BTC$63,888−3.0%
- ETH$1,734−3.3%
- BNB$592−2.4%
- SOL$71.16−3.4%
- XRP$1.17−3.6%
- DOGE$0.0846−3.2%
MARKETS
Trump-Iran memorandum sparks a brief Bitcoin rally to $67K, but the relief trade fades fast.
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What happened. Trump and Iranian president Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding at Versailles, framed by the White House as ending the US-Iran conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin spiked briefly above $67,000 on the headline before retreating, as traders weighed whether the MOU carries any binding weight. The broader market had already been rattled earlier in the session by Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting, which held rates steady but struck a hawkish tone on inflation.
Why it matters. The Hormuz angle is the operative one: sustained reopening would pressure energy prices lower and reduce the macro tail risk that has been hanging over risk assets for months. The snap rally shows crypto remains acutely sensitive to geopolitical relief trades, even at the index level. That said, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 15, deep Extreme Fear, meaning positioning is light enough that any durable catalyst could move prices sharply from here.
The catch. An MOU is not a treaty, and Polymarket’s $120 million ‘permanent peace deal’ market is already in dispute over whether this qualifies. Warsh’s hawkish lean, with inflation still near a three-year high, means the rate backdrop stays unfavourable regardless of geopolitics. Bitcoin’s $8.6 billion in out-of-the-money June options suggests the options market was not positioned for a quick recovery, and the fade after the $67K touch confirms that.

Bitcoin ETFs bleed $82 million in a single session. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative again, with most products seeing net redemptions except Fidelity’s FBTC, which bucked the trend. The outflows coincide with the post-FOMC dip that pushed BTC to $64,150 before the Iran headline provided a partial bounce. Net flows remain a useful sentiment proxy, and two consecutive outflow days tend to precede another leg lower absent a macro catalyst.
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UNI jumps 20% on a Standard Chartered price target and tokenised stock launch. Standard Chartered published a note setting a $100 UNI price target by 2030, which landed alongside Uniswap’s move into tokenised equities trading. The token outperformed everything else in the top 50 by a wide margin during a session where most majors were down 1-3%. Whether the tokenised-stock angle has fundamental legs or is a short-term narrative trade is the question now.
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K33 says long-term holder supply at a record high signals the bear may be bottoming. K33 Research flagged that the share of BTC supply held by long-term holders has hit an all-time high, a metric that has historically coincided with late-stage bear market compression rather than outright capitulation. Trading volumes have also fallen back to yearly lows, consistent with a market where sellers are exhausted rather than eager. It does not call a floor, but the setup is one bears should not be complacent about.
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Strategy’s STRC preferred stock closes at a record low, 11% below par. Strategy’s STRC preferred shares closed at $89, the weakest print since issuance, reflecting market concern about the company’s balance sheet as bitcoin languishes. The discount to par creates an implied yield above what the instrument was designed to offer, which is either an opportunity or a warning depending on your conviction on BTC. Either way, it keeps the ‘Strategy contagion’ narrative alive.
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Trace Finance closes a $32 million Series A for stablecoin payments infrastructure. CoinFund led the round, with Coinbase Ventures, Haun Ventures, Jump Capital, Paxos and Chainlink Labs all participating. Trace focuses on enterprise stablecoin rails rather than consumer-facing products, targeting the treasury and cross-border payments layer. The valuation grew 10x from its seed, which is a notable mark given the broader funding environment.
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Fidelity moves into stablecoin reserve management, joining a crowding trade. Fidelity is positioning its asset management arm to custody and manage the reserve portfolios that back major stablecoins, competing directly with BlackRock’s BUIDL and similar institutional products. The move reflects how stablecoin legislation has unlocked a new category of fee income for Wall Street. Moody’s simultaneously announced it is publishing credit ratings on Solana-based tokenised assets, adding another piece of traditional finance scaffolding.
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Satori Finance shuts down, another perps DEX fails to outlast the bear. Satori, which raised $10 million in a 2022 seed round from Polychain, Coinbase and Jump, cited unfavourable market conditions in announcing its wind-down. The closure adds to a string of derivatives DEX failures and underscores how difficult it is to sustain liquidity on decentralised perps platforms outside a bull market. Hyperliquid’s $10 billion open interest milestone, reported separately, shows the gap between the winner and the field is widening.
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Tether quietly winds down Alloy and the gold-backed aUSDT product. Tether is discontinuing its Alloy platform and the aUSDT gold-pegged stablecoin without a public statement explaining the strategic rationale. The products were positioned as Tether’s entry into commodity-backed digital assets and had modest but real on-chain usage. The shutdown leaves the question of whether Tether is refocusing entirely on its core USDT business or pivoting to something else.
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‘Bitcoin Rodney’ pleads guilty in $1.8 billion HyperFund fraud. A Miami-based promoter who operated under the alias Bitcoin Rodney admitted his role in HyperFund, a global crypto scheme prosecutors describe as one of the largest fraud operations of its kind. The guilty plea follows years of enforcement action against the network’s operators and promoters across multiple jurisdictions.
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Bybit lands on Singapore’s MAS Investor Alert List. The Monetary Authority of Singapore added Bybit to its alert list, which flags entities that may be mistakenly perceived as licensed or regulated in the jurisdiction. Bybit is not accused of fraud, but inclusion signals that the MAS believes retail investors in Singapore face meaningful confusion about the exchange’s regulatory status.
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Binance VIP client manager reportedly under investigation by Chinese authorities. Unverified reports suggest Chinese authorities are examining a Binance VIP relationship manager, though details on the scope and charges remain unclear. Binance has not commented publicly. The claim is unconfirmed but worth monitoring given ongoing regulatory sensitivities around Chinese nationals employed at offshore exchanges.
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Illinois signs a 0.2% crypto transaction tax into law, drawing industry fury. Governor Pritzker signed the Digital Asset Tax Act, making Illinois the first US state to impose a transaction-level tax on holding or transferring digital assets. A16z general counsel Miles Jennings noted there is no comparable state-level tax on stocks, bonds, or derivatives anywhere in the country. Industry groups are already signalling legal challenges and warning that crypto businesses will relocate.
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CME Group announces it will sue the CFTC over perpetual futures approval. CME CEO Terry Duffy told CNBC the exchange intends to file suit, arguing that perpetual futures should be classified as swaps under Dodd-Frank, which would put them under CFTC swap-dealer rules rather than the lighter-touch futures framework. The case, if it proceeds, would directly threaten the product roadmaps of several crypto-native exchanges that have launched or plan to launch perps in the US market. It also puts the CME on an unusual collision course with its own primary regulator.
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Kentucky sues Polymarket, Kalshi and their brokerage partners over sports event contracts. The state filed suit against Polymarket and Kalshi, along with Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull as distribution partners, alleging unlicensed sports betting in violation of state law. A Michigan federal judge separately ruled the same week that sports prediction markets fall outside CFTC jurisdiction, creating a patchwork of conflicting state and federal positions. Gaming industry lobbying groups are simultaneously pressing Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and strip the CFTC of any oversight authority over the category.
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CBDC ban through 2030 tucked into a bipartisan housing bill. House and Senate leaders agreed on updated language in the 21st Century Road to Housing Act that includes a provision prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing a retail digital dollar until at least 2030. The ban arriving via housing legislation rather than a dedicated crypto bill reflects how CBDC opposition has become a broadly bipartisan baseline rather than a contested position. It still needs a floor vote.
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What else is grinding?
- Bhutan transferred 533 BTC worth roughly $34.5 million to Binance, leaving state-linked wallets with fewer than 1,750 BTC according to Arkham data.
theblock - Fairshake-backed Representative Barry Moore won the Alabama GOP Senate runoff, marking what the PAC called its largest single spend of the current election cycle.
theblockcointelegraph_regulation - Australia’s High Court unanimously ruled that crypto yield product Block Earner required a full financial services licence, overturning a 2025 appeal decision in the regulator’s favour.
theblock - Senators Lummis and Gallego introduced a bipartisan resolution pressing Trump not to pardon Sam Bankman-Fried, putting both parties publicly on record ahead of any clemency discussion.
theblockdecrypt - France announced it will stop certifying security products without quantum-resistant encryption from 2027, a timeline that will eventually force questions about Bitcoin’s cryptographic assumptions.
decrypt - Zama, Morpho and Steakhouse launched what they claim is the first confidential DeFi yield vault on Ethereum, letting institutions earn yield without exposing on-chain balances.
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Last sip. The Iran MOU has no enforcement mechanism, the Polymarket market is in dispute, and Bitcoin is still below $65K — the relief trade and the unresolved reality are sitting in the same room.